Marriage in California (OR Election Ballots and voter turnout)

May 20, 2008

Ezra discusses the likelihood of an amendment prohibiting gay marriage in California…  He points us to a couple polls that make it seem rather likely. But, like all polls, these are samples of population, not of those who will be voting in November.

It’s issues like this that make me wonder about the impact an Obama candidacy will have. Sen. Obama has, as you may have heard, generated a great deal of enthusiasm with his candidacy. The extended Democratic primary seems to be getting more and more people involved, and potentially invested in, the election.

So, if liberal voters come out in record numbers, if for no other reason than to be able to say “I voted for Obama” and conservatives stay home because Sen. McCain doesn’t capture their interest (especially in a state as blue as California), isn’t there a decent chance this amendment fails to pass?

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