May 29, 2008
Andrew Sullivan points to a report indicating that opposition in California to same-sex marriage is dwindling (PDF). He points to this, in particular:
Californians age 18-29 favor the idea of allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry by a greater than two to one margin (68% to 25%). Those in the 30-39 age group also approve of such marriages by 24 percentage points. However voters age 65 or older disapprove by a wide margin (55% to 36%).
He then notes:
The next generation doesn’t simply approve of gay marriage; it does so by a massive majority. The poll suggests an Obama-Clinton-style generation gap – and an Obama candidacy this fall will surely increase the number of these demographics in the California voting this fall.
Which is, really, another aspect of the point I made last week. If Obama can actually get lots of younger voters to the polls (which seems likely, given his popularity in that demographic), then their votes could certainly tip the balance here.
All in all, I’m feeling pretty good about this.
May 20, 2008
Ezra discusses the likelihood of an amendment prohibiting gay marriage in California… He points us to a couple polls that make it seem rather likely. But, like all polls, these are samples of population, not of those who will be voting in November.
It’s issues like this that make me wonder about the impact an Obama candidacy will have. Sen. Obama has, as you may have heard, generated a great deal of enthusiasm with his candidacy. The extended Democratic primary seems to be getting more and more people involved, and potentially invested in, the election.
So, if liberal voters come out in record numbers, if for no other reason than to be able to say “I voted for Obama” and conservatives stay home because Sen. McCain doesn’t capture their interest (especially in a state as blue as California), isn’t there a decent chance this amendment fails to pass?