This post has been careening around my head for a few weeks now, and it’s likely to come out in dribs and drabs, so I apologize, in advance, for its inchoate nature.
Firstly, the numbers. Steve Benen over at Washington Monthly has the full round-up, but suffice to say, at this point, you pretty much have to not believe, in the least, in the accuracy of political polling to think that McCain has any chance whatsoever.
As for my prediction, I think that Obama takes all his safe states, plus Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota (!!), Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina (!!!), and Florida, to finish with 356 electoral college votes, to 182 for McCain. Arizona, Montana, and Georgia are pipe dreams, a last-second head fake trying to get McCain to spend a little more money unnecessarily. West Virginia seems pretty safely red, and I think Indiana and Missouri will both break that way tomorrow as well.
Still, a good, convincing win. The Democrats will also end up with 58 Senators, counting the independents, according to Electoral-Vote.com, whose predictions I generally agree with here. Actually, scratch that. I think Franken will win in Minnesota, so call it 59 Dems, probably ending up at 58 after Lieberman has his traitorous ass kicked to the curb in January. And, yes, for those readers who happen to be my mother, I will be reminding you of your vote for him in the ’04 Presidential Primary for quite a while yet.
I don’t know about the house, but the feeling seems to be about a 28-30 seat pickup for the Dems, leaving them with a 250-185 majority, or thereabouts.
So, in all, a good day for the Democrats, and a long day in coming. I’m glad that it only took the country about 4 more years than it should have to realize what a complete and utter clusterfuck the Bush Administration has been.
One of Yglesias’ hobby horses is that a real downside of the American system is that we don’t have anything like the ‘lack of confidence’ votes you see in parliamentary governments, whereby the parliament can, basically, call for the disbanding of the current government, which often leads to new elections and the imposition of a new set of people running the government, sometimes even a new party. However, in this case, I’m glad that the Bush Administration had to stay and take the beatings that was its due, thanks to the horrible policies they’ve been pushing for the past 8 years. If they could have skated away in 2006, Prime Minister Kerry (*shudder*) would, right now, be dealing with the horrible economy that we are mired in (don’t fool yourself that 2 years of Democratic rule could have averted this crisis – nothing but the complete repeal of the fundamental rules of economics could have done that), and things might not look so rosy for the chance to really lock in some Democratic gains, and the chance to make some real progressive moves.
And so, there’s one thing that I like about the American political system. But, wait, there’s more!